Ever wonder what to take into account when betting the over/under? Well, here are two tips to consider when placing this type of bet.
The days of checking out how many points each team is averaging per game and taking into account the two defenses are long gone, thanks to advanced analytics.
Advanced analytics has given us the ability to analyze so many different parts of the game.
The amount of rest a team has between games is an important factor to consider. Teams typically play most of their games on one day of rest. However, this season’s condensed schedule has that happening even more than usual, and two-game series has become a thing.
So how does rest time affect a team’s scoring output?
Let’s take a look at the Sacramento Kings. On one day of rest, they have a 9-2 record against the over/under this season. That means they’re hitting the over 88.9% of the time. And when they do, they’re averaging 10.2 more points than what the line was set at.
On the flip side, on no days’ rest, they’re 0-2 against the over/under this season. Now I know that’s a small sample size in comparison, but in this situation, they’re averaging 10.8 points under what the line was set at in this situation.
The same goes for two days of rest. They’re 0-2 when given 2-3 days off in between games. So, for Sacramento specifically, it’s best to avoid this bet when they’re coming off of zero days’ rest or 2-3 days’ rest.
Another stat to consider is the pace at which teams place along with how efficient they are.
Pace is the number of possessions a team has each game and efficiency is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions.
This time let’s look at the Washington Wizards and the New York Knicks.
The Wizards are the fastest team in the league, playing at a pace of 107.9. The Knicks are the slowest team, playing at a pace of 98.2. If you look at the difference between those two numbers, that’s almost 10 possessions per game.
Once you know the pace at which a team plays, take a look at how efficient they are. Depending on efficiency, this can either add or subtract a few points from the game’s total score.